The Impact of the First Obama/McCain Debate

Interpreting the Impact of the First Debate:
The first debate is over, overshadowed by the specter of an economy coming apart at the seams. John McCain, who is now running behind Barack Obama in the most recent polls, needed to win. He didn’t! Barack Obama needed only a tie or to look knowledgeable and capable – Presidential, it is called. He got what he needed on both counts.

The three polls following the debate all give the debate by varying margins to Barack Obama; (1) CBS by 39 percent thinking Obama the winner, 25 percent thinking that McCain the winner, and 36 percent in a tie, (2) CNN where 51 percent thought Obama did better, 38 percent who thought McCain did better, and (3) Insider advantage that had the outcome at a virtual tie, 42 percent for Obama, 41 percent for McCain, and 17 percent undecided. As in the past, the results were mostly a reflection of the existing candidate loyalties with which people viewed the polls. Obama supporters thought Obama won, and McCain voters thought he won.

The on air partisan pundits were quite predictable after the debate. Every Republican analyst extolled the McCain performance while the Democrats all praised the success of Obama. I wonder why anyone bothers putting any of these people on the air. It is such a waste of good air time with people who cannot and will not give any response other than the Party line. It is one of the ways that politics seems to make liars (only they call it spin) out of everyone, and cynics out of the electorate.

On the whole, the professional media analysts bent over backwards to be balanced, and CNN, where I watched the event in Paris, provided useful background on the usual distortions. On this score, McCain did worse and seemed much more manipulative to me. McCain finally lost as well on the tactic of saying repeatedly that “Obama just doesn’t understand.” I lost track of counting the number of times, but it clearly exceeded the capacity of the audience to tolerate it, and it fell very flat with a performance by Obama that was knowledgeable, thoughtful and concise, and where he clearly did understand a whole lot more than McCain wanted to give him credit for.

The Impact of the Debate Tends to Widen Over Time
The media aftermath is very important to the debates. I am not in the United States at the moment and I do not have the opportunity to sample the responses of the media. In general, I believe that the aftermath with favor Obama on several grounds: (1) his overall performance was simply better – more polished, articulate, even handed and balanced, a fact noted in the lead story this evening (Paris time) on Yahoo where McCain got a B- from the professional evaluator and Obama an A-, (2) Obama really did not have to win, but he needed to persuade viewers that he could lead the country and he did that for the most part, and (3) the media replay will tend to favor Obama with the larger network media, with the exception of Fox News and the radio talk show hosts like Rush Limbaugh.

Of course, if they held the election in Europe, Obama would win by a 75 percent to 25 percent margin. They care more about what is in his head over here, and much less about the color of his skin. He seems to be as well thought of over here as Bush and McCain are disliked. The race clearly matters a lot to the Europeans and their sympathies are almost entirely with Obama.

The Outcome of the Performance:
This poll will not change the numbers too much, although one might expect to see the current 3 to 4 point national advantage for Obama grow by a point or two, as a few more undecided voters move into the category of supporting one of the two candidates.

Obama is catching up in many of the state wide polls, which tend to lag the national trends by a week to 10 days because the polls are not as frequent. This is true across the Board, but the McCain leads in Virginia, Florida, and Ohio have been reduced to nothing and Obama’s leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and other battle ground states have grown appreciably. If Obama’s lead widens nationally, that will be reflected in most of the state by state data, pulling more states in Obama’s direction.

Overall, most voters have generally made up their minds on this contest, and the debate will more reinforce existing preferences than change anyone’s minds. Where the debate caused any movement at all, it had to be modestly in Obama’s direction. If anything, the debate created the impression that Obama is the likely next President of the United States, and despite all the reservations, that he might just be up to the task.

The Importance of the Vice Presidential Debate:
McCain’s clear failure to dominate and win over Obama creates a high bar and ups the stakes for Governor Sarah Palin. The McCain/Bush handlers have been very careful to limit Palin’s independent exposure to the national media, trying hard to train her as best they can in the short time they have available. She will probably do alright against Senator Joe Biden, but, unfortunately, alright is just not good enough. The persistent doubt about her basic competency in foreign policy and military matters has gradually undermined her initially high standing with the electorate, and nothing the McCain camp has done to date has eliminated the doubts. Doubts that are based on real hard facts are hard for partisans to undermine with their rhetoric and specious claims.

Barack Obama, who is also challenged on his experience and knowledge, has had 18 grueling months of training on the campaign trail, including nearly two dozen debates against some reasonably competent opponents, and endless news conferences where he fielded all questions. Frankly, the long campaign showed in his knowledge and composure in the first debate. I doubt seriously that he could have done that well six months or a year ago. Long campaigns are clearly a form of “on the job” training.

Sarah Palin, by contrast, has had less than a month to prepare, and she may well be a quick study, but it is not enough. Intensive training for a month, with no dress rehearsal, will leave some gaping holes, and some of them are likely to emerge in the debate. She is going up against Senator Joe Biden, who is not the best debater with his often long winded answers, but you are very unlikely to find any gaping holes in Biden’s knowledge or experience. There are questions about Biden, but not about his experience, intelligence and knowledge – all areas where Palin has yet to convince anyone other than her most ardent supporters and advocates.

Palin actually needs to win to make up for McCain’s failure to win, and that will prove very difficult and unlikely. She will most certainly put in a respectable performance, particularly under the circumstances, but a respectable performance simply will not bring a lot of votes to the ticket. The equally likely outcome is that she falls into some of the deep pits that the questions will create, undermining the ticket and proving McCain’s selection a disaster.

The Other Debates – More of the Same:
The second and third debates are usually anti-climatic. The public wears out hearing the same things over and over again; the size of the audience shrinks dramatically and there simply are fewer voters to be persuaded one way or the other. The first debate certainly did not put any dent into the momentum that Obama has gained in the past 10 days, and the Vice Presidential Debate has a real likelihood that it will contribute to that momentum.

The simple facts of Palin’s education, background, experience or views do not support the claim that she is well prepared to serve as President of the United States. The Republican strategists can repeat their nonsense about her competency as much as they like, repeating it ad nausea, and it will not persuade the many serious, relatively fair minded and less partisan people out there that they are right.

There are many well educated people and fair minded people in American, who are just not that naïve or stupid. There is a constant undercurrent of commentary from the main stream intellectual leadership that is horrified about the choice, and you hear it constantly. In Europe, where I am at the moment, they are shouting it from the rooftops in virtually every publication and media outlet.

Of course, you can adopt the position taken by the Bush and Cheney Administration when they unilaterally decided to attack Iraq that the good opinions of mankind are irrelevant to an all powerful United States, lead by the most parochial leaders in my lifetime. The French and the Germans were quite right about Iraq and told us so, nicely at first and then more stridently. Maybe it would be good to listen to them about Sarah Palin.

Democrats Breathing a Sigh of Relief:
There is always great tension building up to the first debate, but the fiscal crisis really took much of the wind out of this one and put it in perspective. The fiscal crisis has helped Obama, as McCain clearly understands, and he feels pretty helpless to do much about it. The fiscal crisis reinforces the terrible problems caused mostly by the Bush Administration, and Obama is today thought of as more likely to deal well with the economy. And why not? It is farfetched to assume that John McCain is going to change the policies of Bush, especially when he spends a lot of time telling everyone that he won’t.

This is still going to be a close election, but perhaps a little less close than it would have been 10 days ago. The fact that it would not be close if it were not for the color of Obama’s skin is mostly irrelevant. Obama only has to win by one electoral vote to serve as President, and he will have the House and the Senate with him and four years to prove that he can govern.

Democrats might well be able to breathe a sigh of relief now that the first debate is over, but they cannot let down their guard for a moment. The really ugly part of the Republican attack is just beginning, brought to you by their client groups, and there are still a few people who will be persuaded by the ugliness.

No matter what the candidates pretend, each Presidential campaign seems to get uglier and nastier than the previous one. The use of the Internet has opened the process more fully to everyone; creating a veritable army of smear artists who can circulate the outrageous the virtual impunity. There is also more money available to the so-called, “independent campaign committees,” most of whom are party clones by a different name, so media buys in key states are more common.

As I predicted last spring, these committees are attempting to make Obama’s friendships an issue, but they have miscalculated this time. The impact of Reverend Wright has happened already. It is old news, and nasty reminders are not going to be of much use except to those who have already been affected.

One of the real advantages of the protracted primary system was the fact, now beneficial, that Obama has become known to most Americans, for better or for worse. His errors and weaknesses are already noted and known to most of the electorate, as are his strengths. The sense of knowing who he is today serves as an armor that protects him against some of the mud that his opponents will throw.

Just my opinion,

Gordon Black