The VP Decision

The First Big Obama Decision:
Obama faces his first huge decision almost immediately, and it is obvious: how to deal with Hillary Clinton and whether to put her on the ticket as his Vice President candidate. The answer is not obvious at all, despite the strong feelings that will swirl around the decision. As we all know, politics makes strange bedfellows, but this would be among the strangest of all time.

There will be a body of opinion inside the Obama campaign that argues simply for ignoring her and the unusual situation, but that will only push a final resolution off to the Convention with debilitating effects on the entire Democratic Party. That leaves very little time for reconciliation, for any merger of effort, for an elimination of uncertainly for people who continue to harbor hopes, and a complete focus on the Republicans and John McCain. There is apparently an additional body of opinion that views her behavior during the campaign rules her out as a partner.

Regardless of these feelings, the decision needs a clear look at some of the issues at stake, and emotions aside, there are serious risks either way.

The Central Problem:
Everyone knows instinctively what the largest risk is with this decision, and it has the name, William Jefferson Clinton. Bill Clinton may well be very popular with many Democrats, but he poses unknown and unknowable risks that no previous President has ever had to face.
He is, after all, the former President of the United States, and he is impossible to hide in any closet quietly, particularly if he does not want that. He is also virtually impossible to control for any length of time, and his presence poses a risk to a White House every step of the way. He is “news” where ever he goes, and he is almost always good copy for the news media. We all know that he has made many “promises” regarding his behavior in the past, and he has not kept them for very long when the impulse strikes him otherwise. Given his international popularity, he could be a substantial asset, but he has a predilection for unscripted, impromptu remarks and he could prove an equally large distraction and liability.

However, there is a huge risk with Clinton posed by his “consulting income” and “gifts” to his foundation over the past eight years. The Clintons have refused to disclose the sources of those payments, and that is not acceptable if she is to aspire to the Vice Presidency. Those payments represent potential conflicts of interest of the most serious sort, and no one can rely on the Clinton’s personal “opinion” about this issue without the public seeing the facts.

Therefore, any consideration of Hillary Clinton for the Vice Presidency should require a complete disclosure of all of the sources of funding for the foundation and for Bill Clinton. The disclosure must be public, immediate and not put off until the Convention, and the subject of public discussion before any decision about Hillary is announced or even considered. At some point, the Obama campaign should indicate that this is a prior condition that must be met for any consideration of Hillary on the ticket. This “leak” will put the ball back in the Clinton’s court, and any refusal or their part is a perfect and quite reasonable justification for not considering her for the ticket.

The second consideration is with Clinton’s “consulting” during an Obama Administration. This is a topic for negotiation. Bill Clinton, like Caesar’s Wife, must be above reproach. This will be an ongoing problem for an Obama Administration, and it would have to be dealt with upfront. It is one thing for Clinton to earn a large fee for speaking before a public convention or meeting, where the activity is public, the organizers are identified and the payment is clear. It is another thing all together to earn a large fee for introducing a client or “friend” to someone important in the new administration, or for undertaking activities between a client and an international corporation or foreign government, or for advising anyone in their dealings with the Federal Government.

Bill Clinton’s consulting activities, and his high flying lifestyle, are a minefield for an Obama Administration. Without full disclosure of all of the sources of his past income, and an active and publicly negotiated agreement on his future income sources, Obama would be walking through that minefield with a blindfold on. If the Clintons cannot agree to those terms, publicly and above board, then they have no right to wiggle the press for an invitation to the Vice Presidency.

The Secondary Problem:
There is a simple rule of American politics. Vice Presidents largely “serve” by waiting in the shadows. No President can afford a Vice President who seizes the public limelight on their own. I doubt that the Clinton’s have in mind such a diminished role – serving in total silence if the President requires that. They simply have never been people to “serve in silence,” as far as I can adjudge, and every public speech by Bill Clinton will be evaluated for any clues that might apply to an Obama Administration.

They know the rules of the White House and the Vice Presidency as well as anyone, and it is hard for me to believe that “silence” is what they have in mind when they started promoting Hillary as the Vice Presidential candidate – “the President-in-Waiting,” perhaps, but not a silent one, either for her or her husband.

Hillary Clinton as a Vice President poses significant risks on her own, but the relationship with her own husband poses even larger risks for damaging missteps and potentially difficult distractions. Giving her a policy “mandate” to capture her efforts, particularly with health care, poses other risks of division within the Administration. The one thing that a new Administration under Barack Obama does not need is a ready source of conflict and disruption within a new administration from the very first day.

The Political Issue:
The question of whether Hillary Clinton on the ticket helps or hurts Barack Obama’s chances is a relatively easy issue to resolve from the standpoint of the public. This is an empirical issue, resolvable quite readily with polling and analysis, and I assume that the Obama campaign has already begun that analysis.

The proponents of Hillary Clinton to the Vice Presidency will not be empirical, except in the crudest fashion. They will assert that she can deliver blue collar and working class whites back to the Democratic Party. That may well be the case for some voters, but her success with these voters in the primaries is no indication that they will return with her on the ticket. Polling with sophisticated analysis can determine whether this will occur with ease, however.

The counter argument is that Hillary Clinton is a polarizing influence in American politics; that she will push Independents and Disaffected Republicans right back into the arms of the Republican, John McCain. Again, this is an easy argument to resolve using sophisticated polling and analysis. Like the situation with White working and lower class Democrats, the argument is empirical and capable of analysis and definition.

Fortunately for the Obama campaign, independent polling organizations, particularly those financed by the media, are not stupid and they can do this analysis as well as the campaigns themselves (although nothing has yet been published). Moreover, the findings of the independent polling organizations (not financed by Obama or Clinton) are far more likely to be accepted by the general public and the proponents and opponents of Senator Clinton. Let’s hope they do this quickly, now that the general primary campaign is over, and the Clintons are suggesting her new role.

The Intangible Issue:
Assume for a moment the following: the empirical analysis shows that the inclusion of Senator Clinton on the ticket neither hurts too much nor helps too much, that her presence is less influential either way, which is the general case for most Vice Presidential candidates.

Including Senator Clinton on the ticket has a number of obvious advantages to the organizational Democrats that supported her campaign. Clinton will bring with here both her organizational advantages and her organizational liabilities. If she is the Vice Presidential candidate, the people who supported her (inner staff, interest groups, funding sources, organizational Democrats, etc) get a consolation prize as it were, which is access to the new administration through her office. These people are much better off staying with her as the potential Vice President than they are sitting out the election or helping John McCain.

Senator Clinton as Vice President will have influence, whether the White House staffers like it or not. They can isolate her only at some real risk, but including her in any policy capacity has risks as well. They cannot stop her from making phone calls, introducing people to figures in the Administration, using her enormous range of contacts to facilitate access, etc. Neither she nor her husband is one who is likely to go quietly into that dark night of political oblivion. That is just not in their character.

The good news, therefore, and the bad news are exactly the same. Including Senator Clinton on the ticket brings along with her an entire entourage of very powerful and influential people whose interests are simply not necessarily the same as the Obama Administration. No new Administration, to my knowledge, has ever faced a situation quite like this one.

The Bottom Line on the Clintons:
This is simply not an issue to avoid, or to delay dealing with. The first step of dealing with it is to communicate two inviolate conditions to Senator Clinton as soon as possible, both of which should be leaked or given to the press. First, there will be no consideration of inclusion on the ticket without full disclosure of all of the fees taking in by Bill Clinton and his Foundation over the past eight years, and sooner rather than later. The issue here is the potential for damaging conflicts of interest which can only be assessed with full disclosure. There is no “wiggle room” on this condition. Barack Obama has a right to know.

The second condition is a public statement from the Clintons that Bill Clinton is willing to”limit” his sources of funding, making them public, for as long as she serves. This condition needs to be eventually in writing and hammered out with lawyers for both sides. That will take weeks, if not months, and there is not a lot of time, once the lawyers are involved.

The second step is obvious: empower the Obama search committee to include her as a possibility and give them the resources to evaluate the consequences of her inclusion on the ticket. That delays the issue and quiets the speculation for a number of weeks, thereby reducing the pressures on the Obama campaign and on Obama himself.

The statistical bottom line is pretty clearcut. If she adds three pointsor more on a combined ticket, i.e., a real statistical improvement in a very close race, she would have to be considered for the ticket, both for the improvement of Obama's likelihood of winning and for the impact her presence would have on other Democratic races. If her contribution is two points or less, that is not much of a contribution and the risks would certainly outweight the potential benefit of having her as Vice President.

Unless the empirical evaluation clearly shows that her inclusion on the ticket markedly improves Obama’s chances in November, she is simply not worth the risks she will bring as the Vice President. There are better and less risky choices, no matter how loud the howls of public outrage by some of her key supporters.

The third step is to work quietly with any media organizations to encourage them to explore the issue and release the findings to the public. Unfortunately, one cannot assume that this obvious issue is equally obvious to them.

Of all of the things that the Obama campaign is faced with at the moment, this is by far the most consequential, now that both Hillary Clinton and her husband have publicly indicated willingness for her to go on the ticket for the “good of the party and the Country.”

No matter what Barack Obama decides, this is a decision that will be second guessed for years, whether he wins or loses in November. Second guessing is the inevitable consequences of excellent arguments on both sides of an issue, where hindsight finally emerges to determine which arguments were the most telling. Barack Obama has argued that judgment is the primary quality, and this is certainly a judgment call if there ever was one.

Just my opinion,

Gordon Black