A Surge in Black Voting

One of the largely ignored factors in 2008 is the probable "surge" in Black participation that is almost certain to occur with Obama at the head of the ticket. African-American voters are the single most loyal, in a partisan sense, constituency in American politics. African-American voters, who were largely Republican in the aftermath of the Civil War, turned Democratic during the Roosevelt Administration and the Great Depression. Since the 1930's, they have grown even more "Democratic" in their voting behavior, casting normally around 90 percent of their votes for Democratic candidates at all levels of government.



At the present time, African Americans make up about 13 percent of the general public and about the same among those who vote in national elections. That means that, on average, they vote at about the same percentage as Whites, which is about at the 50 percent mark in most recent national elections.



With Obama at the head of the Democratic ticket, there will almost certainly be a dramatic "surge" in Black voting -- perhaps producing an African American turnout of 75 to 80 percent of all voting age Blacks. This is, of course, speculation, but there clearly have been surges of participation throughout the primaries among African Americans. It is entirely understandable that such a surge would occur, and it will be helped by the degree of political organization that already exists in African American neighborhoods and communities and the strength of the Obama campaign around the Country. Existing organizations in Black communities will make an abnormally large effort to stimulate voting with Obama at the head of the ticket.



What has not been acknowledged, however, in any of the national media and among the political pundits is the potential effect of such a surge -- an effect that will be felt from the Presidency down to the local dog catcher race. A "surge" from 50 percent to 80 percent of all Blacks voting would represent a 60 percent increase in total Black participation compared with previous elections. Assuming that the White vote does not surge equally, and there are reasons to believe that we might actually witness a fall off in the vote among conservative Whites, the net result would shift the African American percentage of the final vote from 13 percent to as much as 18 percent of more of the total vote.



Since Blacks vote Democratic at all levels by about 90 percent, that means that the Democrats will benefit at every level of government by the surge in Black voting by an amount that is a product of the proportion of a particular district that is African American. Then net effect will be to "advantage" Democratic candidates all across the board, at every level of government. I have no idea without a lot of research how many seats at the State and National levels of government would be impacted by this surge, but the number has to be a fairly large number. Where the effect will be greatest are among the "marginal," or hotly contested seats, where Blacks are a moderate to a large percentage of the electorate in the constituency.



This effect does not include the probable impact of a voting surge among young Whites, who seem likely to enter the election and vote Democratic, perhaps for the first time. Young Whites are unlikely to be as loyal to the Democratic Party, but with Obama at the head of the ticket, his presence and attractiveness to the young is almost certain to have some spillover effect on other races. I will speak a little more about this on my next post.